Category: Economic Outlook
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Rosy Outlook For Housing
Fannie Mae has revised its housing and economic forecasts higher almost every month since mid-summer. Its report this week was even more upbeat. The company’s economists boosted their 2021 GDP prediction 1.2 percentage points to 4.5% saying, “We continue to believe that the conditions for a continued, strong recovery are present once the limiting factors…
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Acting on Optimism
Home building seems to have regained some of its footing after a disastrous setback in April. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said optimism has improved substantially among its new home builder members. The Housing Market Index that measures their confidence in the market has regained 28 of the 42 points it dropped in…
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It’s Officially Called a Recession Now
While the May Jobs Situation report appeared to reveal a huge improvement over April’s 20,000 job loss, it also came with more asterisks than a “Free Offer” on TV. The official report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said there were 2.5 million jobs added in May, a record-setting increase, and a surprise to…
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A New Indicator Arrives
You will see a new Key Indicator in this week’s Economic Update while another that has been tracked for years has disappeared. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is increasingly being used as an index to reset the interest rate for adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) and…
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Why Not Better?
One economist can’t understand why housing sales aren’t doing better. Two others say things will change for the better any minute now. This week there was support for both views as home prices continued to slow and both pending home sales and interest rates fell again. David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the…
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Construction Steps Up
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its Housing Market Index has finally climbed out of the low 60’s range where it has hovered for months. The uptick in the index measures the confidence of builders in the new home market, hopefully indicating they are emboldened to start building again. And right on cue,…
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Better than it Looks
Home building failed to meet analysts’ predictions in September, but, as is often the case with the residential construction report from the Census Bureau and Housing and Urban Development, things got better the deeper one dug. Permits only lost a bit of ground, down 0.6%, and all of that can be accounted for by the…
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Lowering the Temperature
The country is still effectively at full employment; the unemployment rate has spent six months at 4.1%, but things did soften a bit in the first quarter of this year. The March Employment Situation Report reported an increase of 103,000 jobs, well below the forecast of 175,000. The average for the first three months of…
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Fed Watch – March 23
To hardly anyone’s surprise, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its March meeting with a unanimous vote to raise the fed funds rate. Citing expectations that “economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong,” the group raised the target range for the sixth…
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More Than Half-Full
Two pieces of news dominated an otherwise slow week. Taking them in order of appearance, last Friday brought a very encouraging Employment Situation Report. Job creation in December was good, if not spectacular at 156,000 new non-farm jobs. There were also revisions to the October and November reports that added a total of 19,000 jobs…